News Releases

While 2025 has already been a pivotal year for North American politics, there are several key dates and potential outcomes that could truly shape Canada’s political landscape, as we advance in a more volatile and tense sociopolitical environment. 

Firstly, the Ontario provincial election on February 27^th is upon us. Current polling numbers suggest another majority for incumbent Premier Doug Ford. This would allow him to continue being a strong leadership figure within Canada’s political scene and in the country’s response to US tariff threats, particularly as Ontario is Canada’s manufacturing heartland. 
At the federal level, with the resignation of Justin Trudeau, a new Liberal leader and Prime Minister will be selected by party members on March 9^th. Two candidates have become the top contenders, Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, current MP for University-Rosedale. At this point, everything seems to point towards a favourable path to victory for Carney, as he offers sufficient distance from the current government, while providing a sobering tone. Freeland had some success in the Trade, Foreign Affairs and Finance portfolios, but is perhaps too closely associated with the Trudeau brand.

Carney has a strong economic background, including his roles as governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He has stated that he would negotiate with Trump when the U.S is “serious”, and his experience would be reassuring if the country must navigate the inflationary pressures that would come with tariffs. 

New polling data has reenergized many within the Liberal Party, as they feel they may have found a person who is – at least for the moment – shielded from the most frequently used criticisms of the favoured candidate, the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre. While the Conservatives are still ahead, the needle has moved from an historic majority to a more tightly contested electoral matchup, with numbers now indicating Canada would be led by a minority Conservative government. This important shift in public mood has materialized quite rapidly and has obviously been exacerbated by the actions of the US government.

A federal election must occur by mid-October, but most pundits agree that the new Liberal leader would choose, or be forced to, start the election period as early as late March to early April. This would either be proactive to capitalize on the positive polling numbers or be forced by the government losing House support. 

At the conclusion of a federal election, the newly elected Prime Minister will need to immediately address global concerns, especially with the United States. Failure to establish a productive relationship will risk economic stagnation and further require Canada to diversify trading partners. 

Whether an election has happened or not, addressing these concerns at the G7 Summit hosted in Alberta from June 15-17 will be significant for global diplomatic relations, as repairing or maintaining stability with the United States under a Trump administration is uncertain.

Interesting times and there are certainly many twists and turns left in this tale.