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Undoubtedly, a change of administration in the U.S. poses significant implications for Canada’s direct selling industry. Based on experience, President-Elect Trump’s unpredictable nature and understanding of the role the U.S. should play in the world will likely make life challenging for Canadian businesses and the Canadian economy. This is particularly true for small to medium-sized businesses that have a strong reliance on cross-border trade and the ability to ship to and import from the United States.

Canada’s direct selling industry is heavily import-driven, as many of the most important players are based in the U.S. The industry also includes Canadian-based direct selling companies that ship products to the American market. Any application of tariffs—Trump has publicly dangled 10%—would hinder the capacity for firms on both sides of the border to be competitive in product pricing and offering in this market.

This is particularly the case if Canada launches retaliatory tariffs.

Besides tariffs, a Trump administration could revisit trade policies, rules of origin, wage requirements, and other methods, which may very well disrupt supply chains, increase costs, and introduce a great deal of uncertainty in the market. The focus on “America First” may pressure Canadians into leveraging tariff exemptions, adjusting supply chain operations, and strengthening national partnerships to mitigate these risks.

It is important to note that Trump has demonstrated a preference for personal connections in shaping bilateral relationships. That was observed in his first mandate with his increased proximity to the North Korean authoritarian leadership and his unique, and still opaque, relationship with President Putin.

It is fair to assume that Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) and potentially this country's next Prime Minister, could leverage his pro-business stance, conservative affiliation and shared antipathy towards Justin Trudeau to forge a strong rapport with Trump. A closer alignment between Poilievre and a Trump administration may open doors for more effective trade negotiations and collaboration, presenting opportunities for Canadian businesses.

However, while leadership dynamics matter, structural forces like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remain pivotal. This agreement provides a framework to sustain trade discussions and mitigate abrupt policy changes. Under Trump's presidency, direct sellers could benefit from advocating for trade-friendly policies within the existing USMCA framework, ensuring dispute resolution and trade continuity mechanisms.

At the provincial level, Premiers Ford and Legault (Ontario and Quebec) have mentioned a willingness to have a U.S./Canada-only agreement, thus removing an important tension point for the U.S. government. The economic impacts of such a trade deal would be enormous. Mexican industry and current wage levels have played a huge part in providing multinational firms with a great production outlet at a cheaper price within the North American trade infrastructure.

The challenge for a (potential) conservative government will be the management of the trade-offs that Trump might request if, as most expect, there are actual negotiations between the two nations. The Liberal administration, when negotiating the parameters of USMCA, had less incentive to protect some of the energy and agricultural industries, mainly because they were not tied to important voting bases. The intent was to protect the manufacturing-dependent communities in southern Ontario and Québec. Considering the Americans’ past interest in modifying trade conditions for steel, energy and soft-wood lumber trade, Poilievre and his team might be in a more challenging position.

Also, industries tied to direct selling, such as wellness products, natural health, and beauty, may have varied approaches under the Trump administration. Deregulatory policies and shifts in consumer protection enforcement could either enhance or complicate market entry into the U.S. and vice versa, which will underline the importance of the work being done by trade associations involved in these sectors.

Another positive element is that the CPC has demonstrated consistent support for the direct selling industry, notably in its recent committee work on the natural health products (NHPs) file. This trend highlights the party’s openness to collaboration and communications with industry experts and representatives.

In other words, there are reasons to believe that the Canadian collective imagination of the Trump effect is worse than the eventual reality. Once again, the reality is that Canada is a trusted partner and ally, an important piece of American economic growth, plays a role in key strategic supply chains, and, finally, is part of an already well-functioning North American trade infrastructure.

On the other hand, the Trump experience could also be problematic for Canadian businesses and the general economy—but there are ways to mitigate that. In fact, one thing is for sure with him: he’s unpredictable. Knowing this, there is time to prepare, engage with key stakeholders, build relevant alliances, brush up on trade politics, and, inevitably, open up the Rolodex in search of friendly American-based connections.